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If we are to take the Silmarillion as Tolkien's "gospel" then the only things older than Sauron is the Valar and Eru Illuvatar and surely we are not suggesting the watcher in the water is a fallen Valar or a rendition of the creator?
The Maiar were brought into being by Eru to serve the Valar, or to serve Arda in some way in concordance with the three music's, of course many were corrupted by Melkor's discords and I suspect that the watcher is one such Maiar, corrupted wholly becoming wholly forgotten for ages of the planet in much the same way as the abmoniable spiders that spawned Shelob, beings of some power and malice. Certainly Melkor's accomplice in the sacking of Valinor was a magic caster and shaper of shadows and I would contend these are all fallen Maia of different ranks. 92.25.28.10 (talk) 13:58, 27 February 2023 (UTC)[reply]
Thanks for the thoughts. However, Wikipedia as a global encyclopedia is obliged to obtain its information only from Reliable Sources; speculation by editors is called Original Research and is strictly forbidden – indeed, it should not even find a place on talk pages, which are not forums for general discussion (there are plenty of Tolkien forums already on the Web). Tolkien did not come to a settled opinion on the origins of his monsters, leaving many details vague; and so it is with the Watcher in the Water. All the best, Chiswick Chap (talk) 14:36, 27 February 2023 (UTC)[reply]