2004 United States presidential election in Ohio

2004 United States presidential election in Ohio
Turnout	70.6% (of registered voters) ; 65.3% (of voting age population)
Bush 50–60% 60–70% 70–80%	Kerry 50–60% 60–70%
President before election; George W. Bush; Republican	Elected President ; George W. Bush; Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Ohio took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 20 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Ohio was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 2.10% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered Ohio as a swing state. The state's economic situation gave hope for John Kerry. In the end, the state became the deciding factor of the entire election. Kerry conceded the state, and the entire election, the morning following election night, as Bush won the state and its 20 electoral votes. The close contest was the subject of the documentary film ...So Goes the Nation, the title of which is a reference to Ohio's 2004 status as a crucial swing state. Had Kerry won the state, he would have won the presidency with 272 electoral votes despite losing the popular vote, and would have been the first Democrat to achieve this feat; this also meant that if Bush lost the state, he would have lost re-election with 266 electoral votes, and been a one-term president despite winning the popular vote, which would have made him the first Republican to achieve this feat.

As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last time Ohio voted more Democratic than the nation as a whole, as well as the last time where Hamilton County voted for a Republican presidential candidate. Bush became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Stark County since Benjamin Harrison in 1888.

Primaries

2004 Ohio Democratic presidential primary

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations that made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.^[1]


Source	Ranking
D.C. Political Report	Lean R
Associated Press	Toss-up
CNN	Lean D (flip)
Cook Political Report	Toss-up
Newsweek	Toss-up
New York Times	Toss-up
Rasmussen Reports	Toss-up
Research 2000	Toss-up
Washington Post	Toss-up
Washington Times	Toss-up
Zogby International	Toss-up
Washington Dispatch	Lean D (flip)

Polling

Pre-election polling showed a lot of volatility throughout the general election. In September, Bush was gaining momentum here, reaching over 50% in several polls and even reaching double digit margins in some. But in October, Kerry gained back momentum as he started winning many of the polls, leading with from 48% to as high as 50%. The last 3 polls averaged Kerry leading 49% to 48%.^[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $7,349,944.^[3] Kerry raised $3,428,504.^[4]

Advertising and visits

Both candidates campaigned heavily. Bush visited the state 18 times to Kerry's 23 times.^[5] Almost every week, over $10 million was spent on television advertising.^[6]

Analysis

CNN Exit polling showed that Bush barely won the state. Among male voters, he won with 52%. Among female voters, it was tied 50-50. Also, 53% of the voters approved of Bush's job as president.^[7]

Bush dominated in the rural areas, while Kerry dominated and won most of the counties with large populations. Overall, Bush won most of the counties and congressional districts in the state. All the congressional districts Kerry won were in the northern section of the state.^[8]

Results

2004 United States presidential election in Ohio^[8]
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Republican	George W. Bush (incumbent)	2,859,768	50.81%	20
	Democratic	John Kerry	2,741,167	48.71%	0
	Independent	Michael Badnarik	14,676	0.26%	0
	Independent	Michael Peroutka	11,939	0.21%	0
	Others	Others	358	0.01%	0
Totals			5,627,908	100.00%	20
Voter turnout (Voting age population)					65.3%

Results by county

County	George W. Bush Republican		John Kerry Democratic		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total
County	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	Total
Adams	7,653	63.78%	4,281	35.67%	66	0.55%	3,372	28.11%	12,000
Allen	32,580	66.14%	16,470	33.44%	206	0.42%	16,110	32.70%	49,256
Ashland	16,209	64.89%	8,576	34.33%	194	0.78%	7,633	30.56%	24,979
Ashtabula	21,038	46.33%	24,060	52.99%	309	0.68%	-3,022	-6.66%	45,407
Athens	10,847	36.10%	18,998	63.23%	200	0.67%	-8,151	-27.13%	30,045
Auglaize	17,016	73.87%	5,903	25.63%	115	0.50%	11,113	48.24%	23,034
Belmont	15,589	46.78%	17,576	52.75%	157	0.47%	-1,987	-5.97%	33,322
Brown	12,647	63.58%	7,140	35.89%	105	0.53%	5,507	27.69%	19,892
Butler	109,872	65.86%	56,243	33.72%	704	0.42%	53,629	32.14%	166,819
Carroll	7,695	54.53%	6,300	44.64%	117	0.83%	1,395	9.89%	14,112
Champaign	11,718	62.41%	6,968	37.11%	90	0.48%	4,750	25.30%	18,776
Clark	34,941	50.78%	33,535	48.74%	331	0.48%	1,406	2.04%	68,807
Clermont	62,949	70.67%	25,887	29.06%	243	0.27%	37,062	41.61%	89,079
Clinton	12,938	70.26%	5,417	29.42%	59	0.32%	7,521	40.84%	18,414
Columbiana	25,753	52.06%	23,429	47.37%	283	0.57%	2,324	4.69%	49,465
Coshocton	9,839	56.86%	7,378	42.64%	86	0.50%	2,461	14.22%	17,303
Crawford	13,885	63.69%	7,773	35.65%	143	0.66%	6,112	28.04%	21,801
Cuyahoga	221,600	32.89%	448,503	66.57%	3,674	0.54%	-226,903	-33.68%	673,777
Darke	18,306	69.57%	7,846	29.82%	161	0.61%	10,460	39.75%	26,313
Defiance	11,397	61.55%	6,975	37.67%	144	0.78%	4,422	23.88%	18,516
Delaware	53,143	66.05%	27,048	33.62%	265	0.33%	26,095	32.43%	80,456
Erie	18,597	46.39%	21,421	53.44%	67	0.17%	-2,824	-7.05%	40,085
Fairfield	42,715	62.92%	24,783	36.51%	384	0.57%	17,932	26.41%	67,882
Fayette	7,376	62.74%	4,334	36.86%	47	0.40%	3,042	25.88%	11,757
Franklin	237,253	45.12%	285,801	54.35%	2,773	0.53%	-48,548	-9.23%	525,827
Fulton	13,640	62.13%	8,224	37.46%	90	0.41%	5,416	24.67%	21,954
Gallia	8,576	61.29%	5,366	38.35%	51	0.36%	3,210	22.94%	13,993
Geauga	30,370	60.21%	19,850	39.35%	222	0.44%	10,520	20.86%	50,442
Greene	48,388	61.03%	30,531	38.51%	363	0.46%	17,847	22.52%	79,282
Guernsey	9,962	55.84%	7,768	43.54%	110	0.62%	2,194	12.30%	17,840
Hamilton	222,616	52.50%	199,679	47.09%	1,730	0.41%	22,937	5.41%	424,025
Hancock	25,105	70.48%	10,352	29.06%	162	0.45%	14,753	41.42%	35,619
Hardin	8,441	63.03%	4,891	36.52%	60	0.45%	3,550	26.51%	13,392
Harrison	4,274	52.71%	3,780	46.61%	55	0.68%	494	6.10%	8,109
Henry	9,902	65.55%	5,111	33.84%	92	0.61%	4,791	31.71%	15,105
Highland	12,211	66.07%	6,194	33.52%	76	0.41%	6,017	32.55%	18,481
Hocking	6,936	52.55%	6,175	46.78%	88	0.67%	761	5.77%	13,199
Holmes	8,468	75.47%	2,697	24.02%	55	0.51%	5,771	51.45%	11,220
Huron	14,817	57.97%	10,568	41.35%	173	0.68%	4,249	16.62%	25,558
Jackson	8,585	59.89%	5,700	39.77%	49	0.34%	2,885	20.12%	14,334
Jefferson	17,185	47.25%	19,024	52.30%	163	0.45%	-1,839	-5.05%	36,372
Knox	17,068	63.11%	9,820	36.31%	157	0.58%	7,248	26.80%	27,045
Lake	62,193	51.05%	59,049	48.47%	581	0.48%	3,144	2.58%	121,823
Lawrence	15,455	55.77%	12,120	43.74%	135	0.49%	3,335	12.03%	27,710
Licking	49,016	61.72%	30,053	37.84%	351	0.44%	18,963	23.88%	79,420
Logan	14,471	67.63%	6,825	31.90%	102	0.48%	7,646	35.73%	21,398
Lorain	61,203	43.49%	78,970	56.11%	569	0.40%	-17,767	-12.62%	140,742
Lucas	87,160	39.54%	132,715	60.21%	555	0.25%	-45,555	-20.67%	220,430
Madison	11,117	63.90%	6,203	35.65%	78	0.45%	4,914	28.25%	17,398
Mahoning	48,761	36.69%	83,194	62.60%	949	0.71%	-34,433	-25.91%	132,904
Marion	17,171	58.69%	11,930	40.78%	157	0.54%	5,241	17.91%	29,258
Medina	48,196	56.78%	36,272	42.73%	410	0.49%	11,924	14.05%	84,878
Meigs	6,272	58.23%	4,438	41.20%	61	0.57%	1,834	17.03%	10,771
Mercer	15,650	74.92%	5,118	24.50%	122	0.58%	10,532	50.42%	20,890
Miami	33,992	65.67%	17,606	34.01%	162	0.32%	16,386	31.66%	51,760
Monroe	3,424	44.30%	4,243	54.90%	62	0.80%	-819	-10.60%	7,729
Montgomery	138,371	48.97%	142,997	50.60%	1,216	0.43%	-4,626	-1.63%	282,584
Morgan	3,758	56.06%	2,875	42.89%	70	1.04%	883	13.17%	6,703
Morrow	10,474	64.15%	5,775	35.37%	79	0.48%	4,699	28.78%	16,328
Muskingum	22,254	57.26%	16,421	42.25%	191	0.49%	5,833	15.01%	38,866
Noble	3,841	58.73%	2,654	40.58%	45	0.69%	1,187	18.15%	6,540
Ottawa	12,073	51.91%	11,118	47.80%	68	0.29%	955	4.11%	23,259
Paulding	6,206	62.82%	3,610	36.54%	63	0.64%	2,596	26.28%	9,879
Perry	7,856	51.72%	7,257	47.78%	76	0.50%	599	3.94%	15,189
Pickaway	14,161	61.97%	8,579	37.54%	112	0.49%	5,582	24.43%	22,852
Pike	6,520	51.84%	5,989	47.63%	67	0.53%	531	4.21%	12,576
Portage	35,583	46.42%	40,675	53.07%	389	0.51%	-5,092	-6.65%	76,647
Preble	13,734	65.01%	7,274	34.43%	119	0.56%	6,460	30.58%	21,127
Putnam	14,370	76.24%	4,392	23.30%	87	0.46%	9,978	52.94%	18,849
Richland	36,872	59.62%	24,638	39.84%	330	0.53%	12,234	19.78%	61,840
Ross	17,231	54.41%	13,978	44.14%	462	1.46%	3,253	10.27%	31,671
Sandusky	16,224	55.92%	12,686	43.72%	104	0.36%	3,538	12.20%	29,014
Scioto	18,259	51.87%	16,827	47.80%	117	0.33%	1,432	4.07%	35,203
Seneca	15,886	58.86%	10,957	40.60%	148	0.55%	4,929	18.26%	26,991
Shelby	16,204	70.90%	6,535	28.59%	116	0.51%	9,669	42.31%	22,855
Stark	92,215	48.93%	95,337	50.59%	907	0.48%	-3,122	-1.66%	188,459
Summit	118,558	42.91%	156,587	56.67%	1,175	0.42%	-38,029	-13.76%	276,320
Trumbull	40,977	37.89%	66,673	61.65%	495	0.46%	-25,696	-23.76%	108,145
Tuscarawas	23,829	55.54%	18,853	43.94%	224	0.52%	4,976	11.60%	42,906
Union	15,870	70.13%	6,665	29.45%	96	0.42%	9,205	40.68%	22,631
Van Wert	10,678	72.02%	4,095	27.62%	54	0.36%	6,583	44.40%	14,827
Vinton	3,249	54.82%	2,651	44.70%	28	0.47%	598	10.12%	5,928
Warren	68,037	72.06%	26,044	27.58%	341	0.36%	41,993	44.48%	94,422
Washington	17,532	58.02%	12,538	41.49%	146	0.48%	4,994	16.53%	30,216
Wayne	31,879	61.49%	19,786	38.16%	183	0.35%	12,093	23.33%	51,848
Williams	12,040	64.60%	6,481	34.77%	118	0.63%	5,559	29.83%	18,639
Wood	33,592	53.03%	29,401	46.41%	353	0.56%	4,191	6.62%	63,346
Wyandot	7,254	65.69%	3,708	33.58%	81	0.73%	3,546	32.11%	11,043
Totals	2,859,768	50.81%	2,741,167	48.71%	26,973	0.48%	118,601	2.10%	5,627,908

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Clark (largest municipality: Springfield)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Stark (largest municipality: Canton)

By congressional district

Bush won 13 of 18 congressional districts, including one held by a Democrat.^[9]

District	Bush	Kerry	Representative
1st	51%	49%	Steve Chabot
2nd	64%	36%	Rob Portman
2nd	64%	36%	Jean Schmidt
3rd	54%	46%	Mike Turner
4th	65%	34%	Mike Oxley
5th	61%	39%	Paul Gillmor
6th	51%	49%	Ted Strickland
7th	57%	43%	David Hobson
8th	64%	35%	John Boehner
9th	42%	58%	Marcy Kaptur
10th	41%	58%	Dennis Kucinich
11th	18%	81%	Stephanie Tubbs Jones
12th	51%	49%	Pat Tiberi
13th	44%	56%	Sherrod Brown
14th	53%	47%	Steven LaTourette
15th	50%	50%	Deborah Pryce
16th	54%	46%	Ralph Regula
17th	37%	63%	Tim Ryan
18th	57%	43%	Bob Ney

Electors

Technically the voters of Ohio cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Ohio is allocated 20 electors because it has 18 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 20 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 20 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 20 were pledged for Bush/Cheney.

Spencer R. Raleigh
Joyce M. Houck
Betty Jo Sherman
Gary C. Suhadolnik
Randy Law
Leslie J. Spaeth
David Whipple Johnson
Robert S. Frost
Alex R. Arshinkoff
Phil A. Bowman
Jon Allison
Katharina Hooper
Pernel Jones
Henry M. Butch O'Neill
William O. Dewitt
Karyle Mumper
Owen V. Hall
Merom Brachman
Kirk Schuring
Billie Jean Fiore

Objection to certification of Ohio's electoral votes

On January 6, 2005, Senator Barbara Boxer joined Representative Stephanie Tubbs Jones of Ohio in filing a Congressional objection to the certification of Ohio's Electoral College votes due to alleged irregularities including disqualification of provisional ballots, alleged misallocation of voting machines, and disproportionately long waits in predominantly African-American communities.^[10]^[11] Ohio's polling locations and equipment are determined by two Democrats and two Republicans serving on the county's Board of Elections, which ensures that any decision made about polling resources is bipartisan.^[12] The Senate voted the objection down 74–1; the House voted the objection down 267–31.^[10] At the time, it was only the second Congressional objection to an entire State's electoral delegation in U.S. history; the first instance was in 1877, when all the electors from three southern states were challenged, and one from Oregon.^[10]^[13] The third instance was in 2021, when Republicans objected to the certification of the electors from Arizona and Pennsylvania. An objection to a single faithless elector was also filed in 1969.^[10]

References

^ http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW ^{[permanent dead link]}
^ 2004 Presidential Election Polls. Ohio polls US Election Atlas
^ "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". www.campaignmoney.com. Retrieved April 16, 2018.
^ "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President". www.campaignmoney.com. Retrieved April 16, 2018.
^ "CNN.com Specials". www.cnn.com. Retrieved April 16, 2018.
^ "CNN.com Specials". www.cnn.com. Retrieved April 16, 2018.
^ "CNN.com Election 2004". www.cnn.com. Retrieved April 16, 2018.
^ ^a ^b Leip, David. "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved April 16, 2018.
^ "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project".
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d Ted, Barrett (January 6, 2005), "Bush carries Electoral College after delay", CNN, archived from the original on April 23, 2009, retrieved May 23, 2009
^ Barbara, Boxer (January 6, 2005), Press Release of Senator Boxer: Statement On Her Objection To The Certification Of Ohio's Electoral Votes, archived from the original on June 7, 2008, retrieved May 23, 2009
^ "Secure Elections" (PDF). County Board of Election graphic.
^ "Electoral Commission Deliberation", Hayes vs. Tilden: The Electoral College Controversy of 1876–1877, HarpWeek, retrieved May 23, 2009

Ohio Election Results Spreadsheets

[1] ttp://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW ^{[permanent dead link]}

[2] 2004 Presidential Election Polls. Ohio polls US Election Atlas

[3] "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". www.campaignmoney.com. Retrieved April 16, 2018.

[4] "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President". www.campaignmoney.com. Retrieved April 16, 2018.

[5] "CNN.com Specials". www.cnn.com. Retrieved April 16, 2018.

[6] "CNN.com Specials". www.cnn.com. Retrieved April 16, 2018.

[7] "CNN.com Election 2004". www.cnn.com. Retrieved April 16, 2018.

[auto-8] Leip, David. "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved April 16, 2018.

[9] "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project".

[CNN_objection-10] Ted, Barrett (January 6, 2005), "Bush carries Electoral College after delay", CNN, archived from the original on April 23, 2009, retrieved May 23, 2009

[11] Barbara, Boxer (January 6, 2005), Press Release of Senator Boxer: Statement On Her Objection To The Certification Of Ohio's Electoral Votes, archived from the original on June 7, 2008, retrieved May 23, 2009

[12] "Secure Elections" (PDF). County Board of Election graphic.

[13] "Electoral Commission Deliberation", Hayes vs. Tilden: The Electoral College Controversy of 1876–1877, HarpWeek, retrieved May 23, 2009

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